Senegal’s home fuel reserves shall be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities anticipate that home gas infrastructure projects will come online between 2025 and 2026, provided there is not a delay. The monetization of those vital vitality sources is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth studies that analyse the economic influence of the various gas-to-power methods out there to Senegal. Two very totally different technologies are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very important system price differences between the two primary gas-to-power technologies the nation is currently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are in fact significantly better suited than mixed cycle gasoline generators to harness power from Senegal’s new gas assets cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total value variations between the 2 applied sciences could reach as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on scenarios.
Two competing and really completely different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art vitality combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality situations to identify the cost optimum method to deliver new era capacity for a selected nation, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present vital value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and reliable, they’re very different by method of the profiles during which they will function. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it could operate at 90% load issue at all times. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE technology can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other generation technologies that may make up the country’s power combine.
In ไดอะแฟรม reveals that when operating in an electricity network of limited dimension such as Senegal’s 1GW national grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably increase the network capability would be extraordinarily expensive in all possible scenarios.
Cost differences between the technologies are defined by a variety of factors. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impression the output of fuel turbines more than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, due to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost domestic gas, the working prices turn out to be less impactful than the investment prices. In other words, as a end result of low gas costs decrease working prices, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE power vegetation, which are inexpensive to construct.
Technology modularity also performs a key position. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capability each year to have the ability to meet the increasing demand. This is far lower than the capability of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that have to be in-built one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy vegetation, then again, are modular, which suggests they can be built exactly as and when the country needs them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will lead to as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional price for the system by 2035. The cost distinction between the technologies may even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable vitality capacity throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The development of gas infrastructure is a fancy and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, causing gas supply disruptions that can have an enormous financial impact on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria is conscious of one thing about that. Only final year, significant gas supply points have brought on shutdowns at some of the country’s largest gas turbine power crops. Because pressure gauge operate on a steady combustion course of, they require a continuing supply of fuel and a stable dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the availability is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting an excellent pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas plants however, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they were able to preserve a a lot higher level of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of two years delay in the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to invest into gasoline engines, the value of fuel delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in further price.
Whichever way you take a glance at it, new ICE-Gas era capability will reduce the total cost of electricity in Senegal in all potential situations. If Senegal is to satisfy electrical energy demand progress in a cost-optimal method, at least 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity might be required by 2026.
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